[Whiskey Decision] Cereal Insights: Digging Deep into the Grains Destined for Your Next Favorite Sip

What started out as a joke… A mix of coin craft and science fiction, Poland's Mint has unveiled a first: a coin that flies. They call it UFO MP-1766, a piece that defies gravity with concealed motors and magnetic waves. And yes, it will be legal tender. Scheduled for a spring debut, this coin suggests that when it comes to making currency, there are no ceilings. Might this inspire a new whiskey accessory, floating stoppers, perhaps?

In today's dispatch, we're diving headfirst into:

• Are Malted American Whiskeys just an Arbitrage Play? 💰

• Worthy Reads: Sampling some of the best from around the web

• Cocktail: a cocktail for times of too much inventory

Truly unique whiskies are becoming harder to find🔎

U.S. whiskey reserves have swelled to an unprecedented 1.3 billion proof gallons, a significant leap from 710.8 million gallons just seven years prior - a 79% increase. This surge has ignited concerns among many distillers, especially as interest in alcohol appears to be waning in certain demographics. Despite this, reserves continue to expand.

This vast stockpile shifts the focus from mere distillation to differentiation. It's likely we're not alone in noticing the striking “similarities” between whiskies from different distilleries. Perhaps a nod to MGP's Distilling Solutions, which reported $451 million in revenue in 2023, underscoring the industry's current reliance on souring on NDPs.

Moreover, some view stockpiling as a step towards international markets. Yet, we must acknowledge the struggle of nearly 2,000 craft distillers vying for direct-to-consumer sales—a significant challenge with no end in sight.

Buy Grains Low, Sell High Priced Whiskey (sorta)

Navigating the grain markets has balance sheet strategy for whiskey producers. A glance at the price trends from January 2015 to January 2020 reveals a story of savvy procurement. Barley and malt, once the underdogs of grain options, have emerged as arbitrage opportunities. While competitors’ grain bills surged, barley maintained a steady line, averaging between $87 and $114 per metric ton for six years. This consistency offered distilleries a chance to hedge against the volatility seen in corn and wheat, particularly during the 2021 price spikes. Maybe they picked up a thing or two from McDonald’s McRib Strategy?

And while malt & barley did see a surge in price in April 2022 ($260), this was still 60% less than corn ($416) and 32% less than wheat ($343) during the same period. Barley solidified its position as a cost-effective alternative. With its price changes staying below the peaks of other grains. Granted output levels for each grain varies greatly - but that is for another day. But if your quest for knowledge needs to be quenched the Whiskey Tribe did a video that addresses some of this.

The time has finally come (for Malt & Barley)

Since 2017 malt has been embraced by US distilleries. Jumping from ~3.2 billion pounds in 2012 to a conservative projection of ~3.9 billion in 2023 (+22%). Meanwhile, rye and wheat saw significant fluctuations over the same span but at lower quantities.

In 2017, the push for a distinct single malt whiskey category by the American Single Malt Whiskey (ASMW) Commission coincided with low barley costs over the past 3-4 years. Whiskey makers, perhaps spotting the cost benefit, leaned into barley use, while consumers showed a growing preference for American malts.

Distillers' foresight in grain selection is maturing into today's malt-dominant/prominent whiskeys, revealing an industry where long-term strategy shapes the present palate. Roll back the clock a few years ago and the American Malt category was only populated by craft distilleries like Balcones, Westward Whiskey, Virginia Distilling, Westland, Del Bac, St. George Spirits, and Stranahan’s to name a few.

Today the big guys are rapidly entering the space - Jack Daniel’s (2022), Jim Beam (2023), and of course Bulleit (2024).

The transition from niche craft offerings to mainstream powerhouses like Jack Daniel’s and Jim Beam adopting malt underlines strategic foresight. This movement transcends mere trend-following, illustrating how distillers leverage barley's cost stability into market advantage. Here, the industry's tilt towards malt reveals a savvy blend of art and economics, shaping the future of whiskey. Until the next grain opportunity. Cheers!

📰 Worthy Whiskey News (a.k.a. our favorite reads)

• Would you pay £10,000 for a glass whiskey case. You might if it once held the most expensive Scotch in the world.

• Rising from the ashes - Port Ellen releases first new bottles in 40 years. This iconic Scottish distillery is from the dead - and folks are excited.

• A first from High West: a 5-year Bottled-in-Bond Rye made from it’s own distillate. Will it be as well received as its other offerings?

• Further consolidation in the barrel supply chain. Brown-Forman sells Jack Daniel Cooperage to Independent Stave Company

📸Rewind: A selection of our most popular IG Posts

• This bottle has declined from $88 to $74 but is still 1.85X MSRP.

• A peaty comparison of two Islay Legends

• We asked you to do a little price shopping - and boy did you deliver. Old Forester 1924

• Who knew Price Leaders could be so controversial: Weller Antique 107 

We Are Giving Away Whiskey (Seriously)

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Cheers! - Whiskey Decision

🥃Waffle Iron🧇

A creation from @cheerstohappyhour after his visit to Westland’s Distillery. And who doesn’t love a good Stroopwafel as a garnish?

Ingredients

• 1 oz @westlandwhiskey American Oak American Single Malt Whiskey

• Barspoon Coffee Liqueur

• Barspoon Hazelnut Liqueur

• 2 Dashes Angostura Bitters

• Stroopwafel slice, for garnish

Instructions:

Stir all ingredients with ice and strain into a rocks glass or goblet. Garnish with the Stroopwafel slice. Enjoy!

What a ride it's been this week, huh? Thanks for joining us on this journey through the world of good spirits at great prices.

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