[Whiskey Decision] 🎟 Springbank & Tulipmania, Bottle Lotteries, & Honey I Shrunk The Whiskey 🥃

In the whiskey realm, we're always game for a curveball. This week, we had a wild notion to douse a distillery in fluorescent pink, a nod to the upcoming Barbie flick. But, as fate would have it, Hollywood's insatiable appetite for pink paint and a Texas freeze that wreaked havoc on raw materials have left us high and dry. So, our rickhouse stands in its original color, a silent witness to the unpredictable dance between Tinseltown and Mother Nature.

In today's dispatch, we're diving headfirst into:

1. Springbank: A Modern Tulipmania- A deep dive into the swirling currents of today's whiskey market.

2. Bottle Lotteries - Virginia’s Whiskey Lottery had some staggering odds and winners.

3. Honey, I Shrunk the Whiskey - A journey into the curious trend of whiskey miniaturization and what it means for us.

4. A Signature Cocktail from Virginia ABC - A taste of Virginia's ABC liquor stores through a unique cocktail recipe.

🥃The Springbank Surge: A Modern Tulip Mania? 🌷

In the world of Scotch whisky, few names have garnered as much attention in recent years as Springbank. This family-owned distillery, nestled in the heart of Campbeltown, Scotland, has seen its 21-year-old Scotch whisky skyrocket in price from a modest $330 to an astounding 📈$2,442 in just five years. This meteoric rise, reminiscent of the infamous 🌷Tulip Mania of the 17th century, has left many in the industry scratching their heads.

The Springbank Phenomenon

Springbank Distillery is known for its commitment to traditional production methods. Unlike many of its counterparts, Springbank has resisted the temptation to modernize at the expense of quality. The distillery produces a limited amount of Scotch each year, with a focus on maintaining the highest standards of craftsmanship. This dedication to quality has earned Springbank a loyal following among whisky enthusiasts.

However, the surge in price for the Springbank 21-year-old Scotch has been extraordinary, even by the standards of the whisky industry. The distillery's output has not significantly increased, and while its reputation for quality is well-deserved, it's hard to see how this alone could justify such a dramatic increase in price.

Interestingly, this trend is not limited to the 21-year-old Scotch. The Springbank 18-year-old has seen a 174% increase in price over the past 60 months, peaking at $480 in May 2022 and currently priced at $469. Similarly, the 15-year-old has seen a 171% increase over the same period, peaking at its current price of $273 in June 2023.

Echoes of Tulip Mania

The situation is reminiscent of Tulip Mania, a period during the Dutch Golden Age when prices for some tulip bulbs reached extraordinarily high levels before dramatically collapsing. At the height of Tulip Mania in February 1637, some single tulip bulbs sold for more than 10 times the annual income of a skilled craftsman. In today's money, that would be equivalent to a single tulip bulb selling for over $500,000!

Like Springbank Scotch, tulips were not a necessity. They were a luxury, a status symbol. The most expensive tulip bulbs were those of the 'Semper Augustus', a variety with striking red and white streaks. The supply of these unique bulbs was limited, and the demand was driven by speculation, not by any intrinsic value in the tulips themselves. When the bubble burst, prices plummeted, leaving many investors ruined.

The Future of Springbank

So, is Springbank's 21-year-old Scotch the tulip bulb of the 21st century? It's hard to say. The past year has seen a slight decrease in price, with bottles now selling for just over $1,600. However, this is still significantly higher than the price of similar offerings from other respected distilleries.

What we can say is that the Springbank phenomenon is a fascinating case study in the power of market forces. It's a reminder that the value of a product is not always tied to its inherent worth, but to the perceived value assigned to it by consumers.

One thing is certain: whether you're a whisky enthusiast, an investor, or just a casual observer, the Springbank saga is one to watch.

🍀🔢 Statistical Sorcery: Exploring the Unlikely Wins of the Virginia ABC Whiskey Lottery!

Ah, the allure of chance (and rare whiskey)! Last month's Virginia ABC whiskey lottery raised eyebrows with its heady results: two individuals nabbed all four limited-availability beverages, 50 folks secured three, and 229 doubled down on two. Indeed an intriguing statistical probability!

Buffalo Trace Antique Collection's finest—George T. Stagg Bourbon, Sazerac Rye 18 Year Old, Thomas H. Handy Sazerac Rye, and William Larue Weller Bourbon—were up for grabs, and folks flocked in tens of thousands entered for a chance to win.

Here's how the odds looked:

• Bagging one (1) bottle was as likely as flipping a coin 50 times and landing exactly 20 heads—a tantalizing 3.5% chance.

• Securing two (2) bottles? You had more luck pulling a four-of-a-kind in a poker hand with a minuscule 0.0122% shot.

• Winning four (4) bottles pulled off something less likely than winning the Powerball, akin to picking one specific second in 126 years.

The most recent update around this story: a data glitch, is to blame...

📏 Dodging Downsizing: Why Your Whiskey Bottle Stays the Same Size 🥃

Shrinkflation - that elusive phantom of the marketplace, quietly downsizing product portions while price tags hold steady or even creep upwards. But what about in whiskey?

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022 saw a significant surge in consumer food prices, leaping 10.9% year-on-year. The most sizable 12-month inflation since 1979. A blast from the past we didn't particularly ask for.

If this narrative strikes a chord of déjà vu, you aren't wrong:

• Toblerone, in 2016, introduced an “artful,” cost-saving redesign that increased the gaps between its iconic triangular chunks by 10%. Fans we not impressed.

• In 2022, Folgers Coffee slimmed from 11.3oz to 9.6oz, still promising the same cup yield - provided you're pouring 6oz servings.

• Kellogg's cereals (Cocoa Krispies being a personal fav) trimmed 2.3oz in 2008, from 11oz to a lean 8.7oz. That's equivalent to over two bowls - a change felt at breakfast or dinner. No judgement here.

Here's a cautionary note: if the above incidents leave a sour taste, steer clear of the subreddit /r/shrinkflation/. We were fuming three pictures in.

Meanwhile, shrinkflation remains somewhat at bay in the world of whiskey. In the U.S., the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB) rigidly enforces specific bottle sizes for distilled spirits, effectively preventing whiskey from physical shrinkflation.

This global consistency in whiskey bottle sizes extends beyond U.S. borders. Whiskey consumers worldwide anticipate a standardized volume when parting with their cash. An expected 750ml bottle leaving little to no room for manufacturer-led downsizing.

But while shrinkflation has yet to sip away at whiskey's physical volume, its impact manifests in the pricing. Data from Drizly illustrates this, as the unit price of bourbon climbed from $34.65 in 2018 to approximately $40.50 in 2022. That's a 16.8% increase, a financial manifestation of shrinkflation that dents consumer buying power.

Nevertheless, you may be left pondering why a 500ml whiskey bottle remains a rare sight on U.S. shelves, with the last legal production on June 30, 1989.

💘 VA ABC Signature Cocktail: Cupid’s Cloud 🥃

Ingredients:

• 4 drops Bittermens Burlesque Bitters

• 1/2 oz (14.79 mL) Cherry-lavender syrup

• 1 wedge dry ice*

• 2 oz (59.15 mL) Umiki Japanese Whisky

Instructions:

Add all ingredients to a mixing glass, then add ice and stir for around 30 seconds or until 30% dilution is reached. Then strain over a large ice cube in an Old-Fashioned glass. Garnish with fresh cherries and a ribbon of rhubarb.

Cherry-lavender syrup: Add 1 cup water, 1 cup sugar, 1 cup pitted fresh cherries, and 1 tablespoon of dried lavender buds to a medium saucepan. Heat on medium-high until all the sugar is dissolved. Remove from the heat and let the mixture steep for 10 minutes. Then strain the mixture, gently pressing all the juice out of the cherries. Store syrup in a food-safe container for up to 2 weeks.

*Dry Ice safety - Dry ice should never be directly ingested. Dry ice can cause burns or frostbite. Avoid skin contact with dry ice. Please remove dry ice before consuming.

Remember to enjoy responsibly!

What a ride it's been this week, huh? Thanks for sticking around, and for joining us on this journey through the world of good spirits at great prices.

Got friends who love a well-priced tipple as much as we do? Share this newsletter with them and let's make our merry band of spirited enthusiasts a little bit bigger.

Thanks again for being here. Let's raise a glass to the week ahead.