[WD] How are American Whiskey Prices up 40% in 5 years? 📈

The Virginia ABC is back with another online lottery for the Van Winkle lineup, at MSRP. But before you start celebrating, remember: the ABC has a history of questionable lottery practices, astronomical odds, and a revolving door of executives (four in ten months, including the CIO responsible for the lottery system).

So, as you refresh your browser like a lab rat chasing a pellet, just know that you're not only betting on a bottle of Van Winkle, but also on the competence of an organization that can't keep its leadership intact. Godspeed.

In today's dispatch, we're diving headfirst into:

• The American Retail Whiskey Index

• Worthy Reads: Sampling some of the best from around the web

• Rewind: Some of our most popular Instagram posts from last week

• Cocktail: Pulling summer forward with a Seared Apricot-Ginger Cooler

Following Trends. The American Retail Whiskey Index

Well, well, well. Here we are, deep in the heart of whiskey country, where the amber nectar flows like water and the prices just keep on climbing. It's a familiar refrain these days - the old timers love to wax poetic about the glory days when you could snag a bottle of the good stuff for a fraction of what it costs now. "Back in my day," they grumble, "you could get a bottle of [insert legendary whiskey here] for the cost of filling up your gas tank."

But is there truth to these boozy tales of yesteryear, or is it just the whiskey talking?

We took a hard look at the last five years of pricing data for 208 bottles of American whiskey - your bourbons, your ryes, even a few cheeky single malts thrown in for good measure.

And what did we find? Well, for starters, the fact that prices are on the up and up is about as surprising as finding out that water is wet.

The average price of our American Retail Whiskey Index starts back in May 2019 the averaging a quaint $60.21. Oh, how times have changed.

The prices hit a fever pitch in June 2022 with the index at $84.38 (+40% over
3 years). It's around this time that the market seems to come to its senses, like waking up with an empty wallet. Prices stagnate for a few merciful months.

But the reprieve is short-lived. By June 2023, prices are once again on the upswing, hitting $83.01. And then, the bottom drops out. As of August 2023, it's been nothing but a slow drip of negative returns.

Today, the average price stands at $78.86 - a long way from where we started, and a bitter pill to swallow for the average whiskey drinker. Still up 30% from 2019. But hey, at least we can drown our sorrows in a glass of the good stuff. Just don't ask how much it cost.

Now I know what you might be thinking. Surly not every bottle in our 208 index saw 30% price hike over the past five years. And you wise reader would be right. So we stack-ranked every bottle. The median price increase? A slightly less painful 8.4%. But it's the outliers that really paint the picture.

The top 6% (12 bottles) of our whiskey crew saw prices more than double, with half of those overachievers coming from the one and only Buffalo Trace. Because of course they did.

But wait, there's a silver lining. 46 bottles actually saw a price decrease. The reason for this unexpected good news? Often increased distribution, more availability, and good old-fashioned increased production. Our hats are off to Woodinville, Heaven Hill, and Sagamore. It's a strange world, the whiskey game.

But still felt like we were missing something. So we chopped up our index into six neat little categories and two things became immediately clear. First off, this is about as balanced as a one-legged pirate on a tightrope. The bulk of the action is happening squarely in the $25 to $80 range.

But the real surprise is how the peak prices varied across the tiers. The bottles in the $80 to $125 range hit their zenith way back in May of 2022, followed by the Ultra-Premium crowd (that's the $200+ club, for the uninitiated) a year later in May 2023. The Mid tier ($125 to $200) had their final moment in the sun a few months later in July, with the Mid-range ($50 to $80) bringing up the rear.

But what about the little guys? The Value and Budget tiers (basically anything under $50) are still chugging along, blissfully unaware of any impending peaks. They've been steadily climbing for the past five years, with Value up 13% and Budget up 6%. Meanwhile, the big shots in the High-end and Ultra Premium tiers are all nursing their wounds, having pulled back from their lofty peaks. Even the Mid-range tier is feeling a bit of a hangover.

But hey, maybe this is the start of a trend. A little hair of the dog for the rest of the tiers, if you will. We can always dream.

📰 Worthy Whiskey News (a.k.a. our favorite reads)

• Larceny takes World’s Best Bourbon according to American Distilling Institute. Particularly Batch A124 - color us surprised.

• Beam’ing no-more. Beam Suntory changes name to Suntory Global Spirits.

• Just when you thought Daniel Weller was expensive, Millennium says hold my drink…

• Whiskey Auctions are down 29% year-to-date, with many five figure lots failing to meet reserves.

• Where plans of a whiskey heist thwarted? Or just a bit of bad luck for Heaven Hill and the backup generator?

📸Rewind: A selection of our most popular IG Posts

• When Whiskey Rolex invites you to join his podcast - we did! Listen here.

• The bottle we’ve asked the Whiskey God’s to put an end to its ridiculous price - Elijah Craig 18.

• Picking up on the back-stretch. Camulet Farms ‘Single Rack Black’ lineup are pacing towards record highs

• High West’s Prisoners’ Share is down 17% but still well above MSRP.

• Blood Oath’s Bad Blood - the limited release is currently retailing for 3X MSRP.

• Whiplash on the price ride that is Blue Spot 

We Are Giving Away Whiskey (Seriously)

Dive into our Referral Program: Sharing isn't just caring; it's the beginning of a thrilling quest. Uncover hidden whiskey gems and earn gift cards for your next bottle.

Your Mission: Spread the 'Whiskey Decision' spirit using your unique referral link provided below. Ensure your friends subscribe through your link to secure your well-deserved rewards.

Cheers, Whiskey Decision

🍑Seared Apricot-Ginger Cooler🍑

With temps warming up, any excuse to grill will do - even to help make a cocktail. Who doesn’t love an early summer treat?

• 1 apricot, pitted and sliced into 4 1-inch wedges

• 3⁄4 oz. lemon juice

• 1 1⁄2 oz. of rye whiskey (Pikesville is our suggestion)

• 3 oz. ginger beer

• 3 thin apricot slices

Preparation

1. Build a medium-heat fire in a charcoal grill, or heat a gas grill to medium. (Alternatively, heat a cast-iron grill pan over medium-high.) Grill apricots, turning once, until seared on both sides, 1-2 minutes. Remove from heat and set aside.

2. In a cocktail shaker, muddle grilled apricot slices with lemon juice. Add the whiskey and ice; shake briefly. Strain into a Collins glass over ice and top with ginger beer. Garnish with apricot slices.

What a ride it's been this week, huh? Thanks for joining us on this journey through the world of good spirits at great prices.

Got friends who love a well-priced bottle as much as we do? Share this newsletter with them and let's make our merry band of spirited enthusiasts a little bit bigger.

Thanks again for being here. Let's raise a glass to the week ahead.